Owings Mills, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

447
FXUS61 KLWX 300800
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front to the west will track across the region this
morning before stalling off to the south through midday
Thursday. This stalled boundary lifts back north as a warm front
on Thursday evening into the night. Another cold front crosses
through on Saturday morning, while eventually stalling near the
Atlantic coast through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms which had a history of
producing severe weather west of the Alleghenies has finally
pushed into the Chesapeake Bay. Any severe threat has largely
been held at bay given the stabilizing boundary layer. However,
there has been enough convective mixing to get occasional 25 to
35 mph winds down to the surface. Behind this decaying line of
showers heading toward the Eastern Shore, some light stratiform
precipitation persists back toward U.S. 15.

With the upstream cold front still west of the Allegheny Front,
a continued warm advection pattern has aided in very mild
temperatures this morning. As of 07Z/3 AM, current temperatures
are generally in the mid 60s to low 70s, slightly cooler in the
mountains. Clouds remain abundant as well which is limiting the
outgoing longwave radiation. While much of the shower activity
winds down, the cold front to the west will likely spark some
additional showers along the Alleghenies.

The cold front that moves through during the early morning hours
is expected to slowly nose southward through the day. The
latest model guidance favors this boundary stalling just south
of I-64 in central Virginia. Steady lift along this frontal
system will keep some threat for showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two in the picture. Off to the north, the air
mass should be quite the opposite being characterized by lower
humidity (30 to 35 percent). Based on observations over the
locations well to the north, dew points are much lower across
New England and southern Quebec. However, there are no fire
weather threats given a lack of gusty winds and recent rainfall.

Today`s high temperatures are expected to rise into the upper
70s to mid 80s underneath plenty of sunshine. Despite added
cloud cover well south of I-66, the overall air mass is warm to
start so it should not take much to push into the 80s. The
boundary remains stalled in the vicinity of I-64 into the
overnight hours. Some patchy fog is not out of the question over
the Potomac Highlands eastward into the central Shenandoah
Valley. Most can expect low temperatures in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned frontal zone to the south is expected to lift
poleward during the second half of Thursday. As this warm front
makes its northeastward push, humidity levels will rise as Gulf
moisture re-enters the entire area. As this occurs, overall
cloud cover will also increase which yields mostly cloudy skies
on Thursday. This may offset some of the daytime heating which
holds temperatures fairly closer to today/Wednesday. However,
ensemble box-and-whisker plots show a bit more spread owing to
the uncertainties in the convective forecast. It appears any
meaningful activity is tied to the warm front itself. Given the
slower and more delayed arrival of this front, a bulk of the
shower chances initially focus west of I-95. Some showers may
spread eastward into Thursday night which is accompanied by a
return to mild nights. Persistent south to southeasterly winds
keeps low temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Recent forecast packages have noted a slowing trend in the cold
frontal passage which was to be on Friday. At this juncture, the
Mid-Atlantic remains squarely within the warm/moist sector. A
shortwave races toward the east-northeast on Friday morning
which likely spreads some morning showers across the area.
However, do expect a break behind this system which will allow
temperatures to soar well into the 80s. With forecast 850-mb
temperatures around 13-15C, the expected well mixed boundary
layer would push highs in the mid 80s. Some spotty upper 80s are
certainly possible as well, especially along the I-95 corridor.
Opportunities for showers and thunderstorms increase late in the
day as the main trough pivots toward the area from the Upper
Great Lakes.

Temperatures remain mild into Friday night, but becoming a bit
cooler along the Alleghenies where rain continues. Low
temperatures over this mountain range will be in the upper 40s
to mid 50s, with upper 50s to mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold front and associated wave of low pressure progged to move
across FA Saturday. Most guidance has a dry window Saturday morning
before the front moves through with rain during the
afternoon/evening. Favorable blocking pattern off the coast of the
Atlantic makes this front stall near the coast, with the UL system
lagging somewhere in the east. Considerable uncertainty and
evolution of how this system may cut off into an UL low, and where
it may reside if it develops. If it is over the Mid-Atlantic, a
couple more days of showery conditions is possible through the early
parts of next week. Should the system cutoff to the south or not at
all, more quiescent wx is expected.

In terms of temperature, Saturday is likely the warmest day of the
long term with 70s for most. Sunday and Monday have more uncertainty
as to how much if any precip develops. If rain, cooler and 60s, else
70s. A moderation is likely Tuesday, but how much depends on how
quickly any UL system may move out.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With the earlier round of showers and embedded thunderstorms now
into the Eastern Shore, expect a dry forecast through much of
the day along with VFR conditions. The exception would be KCHO
where the early morning cold front eventually stalls in the
vicinity of I-64 later today. This sets the focus for some
shower activity and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. Will
maintain a PROB30 group between 18-23Z. Elsewhere, winds should
mainly be out of the north to northwesterly direction being
north of the boundary.

The system remains stalled to the south through midday Thursday
before slowly returning northward as a warm front. This leads
to a shift back to south to southeasterly winds, with afternoon
gusts up to 15 to 20 knots. Additionally, the return of Gulf
moisture and continued warm weather favors some shower and
thunderstorm activity. A few restrictions are certainly
possible. Winds turn more southwesterly on Friday with sub-VFR
conditions possible at times as storms roll through.

MVFR to IFR conditions at all terminals possible with showers and
thunderstorms Saturday. VFR conditions returning Saturday night into
Sunday, before additional restrictions possible early next week with
renewed rain chances. Southerly winds becoming northwest 5 to 15
knots Saturday into Saturday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Any residual 25 to 30 knots gusts due to previous convection
have subsided over the central/northern Chesapeake Bay. To the
south, Small Craft Advisories continue through 6 AM given
southwesterly wind gusts up to 25 knots. As a cold front slides
southward today, marine winds shift to northerly today before
shifting to a light easterly wind tonight. Winds should stay
below advisory thresholds through the first half of Thursday.

The frontal system to the south gradually returns northward as a
warm front on Thursday afternoon/evening. Its northward push
returns winds to south-southeasterly. Gusts could approach Small
Craft Advisory thresholds at times. However, a better chance for
such advisories come on Friday ahead of the next cold front.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms are possible at times
both Thursday and Friday.

SCA conditions possible Sat with fropa. Southerly winds become
northwesterly behind front. Northerly winds expected Sunday with
gusts largely below SCA criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Given a modest uptick in southerly flow, some of the typically
higher guidance (SFAS, CBOFS) approaches minor flood stage at
vulnerable sites like Annapolis during the astronomically higher
morning tides through today. However, given the brevity of the
southerly flow and its relatively low magnitude, feel that
flooding seems unlikely at this time.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...CPB
AVIATION...BRO/CPB
MARINE...BRO/CPB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX